Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,997$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(407 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,237.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,237.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $476$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(76 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{453.9}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(453.9\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,324$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{334.8}{1 + 10^{-0.102 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(334.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.99 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.6}{1 + 10^{-0.088 (t - 11.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $797$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(51.5 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,140.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 67.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,140.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(7.56 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 19.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $670$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,408$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(398 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,095.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,095.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $183$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(41.4 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{173.1}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 18.0)}}\) (asimptote \(173.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,208$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,588$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(339 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,159.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(14,159.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $469$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(44.6 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{581.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(581.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,304$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,265$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(225 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,990.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 35.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,990.1\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(6.89 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99.8}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(99.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,157$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,025$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{998.3}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 23.4)}}\) (asimptote \(998.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(12.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.4}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 15.8)}}\) (asimptote \(41.4\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $391$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,124$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(82.4 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,104.1}{1 + 10^{-0.134 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,104.1\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $366$ on 2020-05-06
